Quote:
Originally Posted by WT Sharpe
Nothing is less assured than the future, but it will be interesting to see just how these predictions predictions of artificial intelligence play out. The following selection is from In Search of Time: The Science of a Curious Dimension by Dan Falk:
Clarke also predicted that artificial intelligence will reach human levels by 2020, after which there will be "two intelligent species on Planet Earth," one evolving much more rapidly than the other.
Stephen Hawking seems to agree that we should he cautious in the face of accelerating computer technology. In an interview in 2001, Hawking said that human beings should change their DNA through genetic manipulation in order to keep ahead of our electronic rivals and stop intelligent machines from gaining the upper hand. "The danger is real," he said, that this [computer] intelligence will develop and take over the world."
Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil agrees that a human-computer "merger" is inevitable. He predicts that by 2019, $1,000 worth of computing power will have capabilities similar to those of a human brain; by 2029, machines will claim to he conscious; and by 2099 there will no longer be any clear distinction between humans and computers."
— Dan Falk (1966 - ); Canadian science journalist, broadcaster, and author. In Search of Time: The Science of a Curious Dimension (2008, AKA In Search of Time: Journeys Along a Curious Dimension and In Search of Time: The History, Physics, and Philosophy of Time).
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I note that the many brilliant people who predict strong AI in near or foreseeable future tend not to be people who are actually /working/ in AI. It doesn't mean they are wrong; I think more likely they underestimate the difficulty of the problem.
Strong AI refers to a general artificial intelligence, (as opposed to domain specific AI like a chess playing or cancer diagnosing machine), something that can reason, acquire knowledge about the world, communicate with humans and other AI, plan and work toward some goal. It doesn't even have to be conscious in a way that a person or a dog appears to be conscious. It can be just a zombie that behaves in a way that if it were human we would say it is a reasonably intelligent person.
Seems to me we are still far away from that, let alone the HAL9000 type of AI of popular imagination.