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Some people will be outliers (or just really unlucky), but very, very few. I can't imagine that almost anyone who makes the odd return, even if they don't replace a defective item, has anything to worry about.
For me, the real question is, why do some people get warning letters? While some go straight to account closure? Because if you could count on a warning letter, then there's nothing at all to worry about. Once you get it, just stop ordering risky or questionable items and stop ordering from third party sellers, get your numbers back up, and move on.
My guess, and yes, this is pure speculation, is that straight to closure types are those who return high-ticket items or cases where Amazon suspects outright fraud. The warning letters are for the fiddly stuff.
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