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... and to tie my previous rant into the topic at hand, I think Shatzkin's point about the "one big dog that has not yet barked" is mostly... well... pointless. The suggestion that the wholesale "legitimacy" of indie publishing is waiting (or hinging) upon that one huge block-buster name to jump ship is silly. The tide has already turned. The future of publishing is already changed through choice. No need for a big fish to announce their defection.
The current top-tier, publisher-coddled blockbusters will live out their careers in the peace and comfort of their current contracts. But there's not likely to be a replacement for every one of those when they retire or die. With more and more frequency, traditional publishers will have to accept the hybrid contract that tomorrow's blockbuster authors are going to have the leverage to negotiate.
It's not about tradpub dying. It's about them not holding all the marbles any more.That's already done.
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