Mike Shatzkin recently posted his blog entry entitled "The publishing world is changing, but there is one big dog that has not yet barked"
http://www.idealog.com/blog/the-publ...ot-yet-barked/
This post discussed a number of interesting points which have received some attention. However, the topic which gave the post its title appears only near its end, and does not appear to have received the attention it deserves. The Big Dog that has not yet barked? To quote from the post, "No major author of recurring bestsellers has stepped up to take charge of his or her own output."
Like Mike Shatzkin, I would have expected it to have happened already. So why has it not?
Firstly, although sales of ebooks apparently exceed sales of paper books on Amazon, paper books not only continue to constitute a significant proportion of the market but, apparently, the majority. One of the comments to the post suggests that 65% of book sales are print books. Yes, I expect that sales of paper books will eventually shrink to only a small percentage of overall sales. But I also think that this could well take many many years. And while paper book sales remain significant, let's face it, the most effective way for an author to get their books into Brick and Mortar stores and market them is through a traditional publisher. It is easy for self-published authors to provide a print book option for purchasers. For those readers purchasing online, particularly from Amazon, Bricks and Mortar stores are irrelevant, and the Big 5 seem to have little to offer. But the bricks and mortar stores are the province of traditional publishing. Reportedly, even Amazon imprints are being boycotted. Traditionally published books and ebooks are available on Amazon. But Amazon published books or books self-published through Amazon are nowhere to be seen in book stores, newsagencies, Airport Shops etc. It appears that the only way to reach the whole of the market is to be traditionally published. So, the question arises, just what is the size of the market that non-traditionally published authors are missing out on? For most authors, the far more generous terms Amazon offers likely more than make up for potential sales missed. Even if this is not the case, almost all of them are not wanted by traditional publishers for various reasons.
But best-selling authors are different creatures altogether. They are not only wanted by traditional publishers, but courted by them. Anecdotally, as logic would suggest, they are offered far superior terms to those offered to even the best of the so-called mid-list authors. They likely feel some loyalty to the Publishers and People who have contributed to their success. But more important than this is one question. Why they would take such a risk? For instance, assume that the percentage of 65% of sales being paper books is correct (and I don't know if it is or if not what the real figure is). Assume that 50% of these paper book sales are online, with the other 50% being retail sales in bricks and mortar stores (these percentages have been plucked from thin air). To a best-selling author, this could mean that he or she takes a very real risk of being unable to reach up to 1/3rd of their readers (in fact 32.5% being 50% of 65%) if they leave traditional publishing. At what stage does this become worthwhile for them? And if it does, how far will a traditional publisher be prepared to go to keep them? And what about their loyalty to their existing readers?
Assuming that my comments above are correct (and I am no expert on the publishing industry so they may not be) I do not expect to see a defection of a current best-selling author any time soon. And even if I prove to be wrong on this, I don't think there will be many such defections. What I do expect to see is traditional publishing finding it increasingly difficult to secure new authors or attract additional authors from self-publishing. Whilst some new authors will sign with traditional publishers on any terms, I do think those publishers will have to offer much better terms than they currently do even to new authors. They will have to face the hard fact that their titles are competing with self-published and Indi titles, and price accordingly. With higher costs and lower prices they will need to comperhensively review their business practices and become much more efficient.
I also expect that traditional publishing will increasingly come to source their authors from proven self-published authors. The sales pitch will be that we can give you access to this very sizeable and prestigious market where your books are not currently sold. And it would of course need to be accompanied by a commercially attractive offer. I don't know if a true best-selling author is possible outside of traditional publishing at the moment given that self-published authors cannot currently reach a significant proportion of the market. Many future best-selling authors may well come from those who succeed in self-publishing and then take their sales to the next level under a traditional publisher.
Of course, this strategy is only viable whilst print books continue to be a sizeable share of the market. It is not a strategy likely to be viable in the longer term, except perhaps for one publisher in a market niche. If they are to survive and continue to play a significant role in the longer term publishers must come up with a clear and realistic vision of their role in a future market dominated by ebooks. If there is such a role. Some very bad decisions have been made, and opportunities missed. It may already be too late for them to secure their future in the long term. And Amazon will not be sitting idly by!