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Old 12-25-2008, 05:22 PM   #1
ficbot
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How do you envision the 'future' of publishing?

I have been reading a lot of articles lately that, summed up, seem to say this:

1) People are reading less because there is more competition now for their hobby/entertainment time and dollars

2) Publishers have made a mistake by not changing with the times and/or embracing digital technology

3) The current publishing 'system' is broken for authors, publishers and consumers and something's gotta give

So with these three premises in mind, what do you predict is going to happen? What do you think the 'future' of publishing will look like, assuming some visionary person takes the first steps and moves things forward to 'save' the industry?

Here are my thoughts.

1) I think they will have to open up the e-market a little. At first, there will be some resistance, some awful draconian DRM schemes (Scrollmotion for iPod, anyone?) and some pricing scandals ($50 per title for Stephen King's 30-year-old backlist? Come on!) There will also be some device battles as people try and introduce silly formats to go with exclusive storefronts.

2) Eventually, they will realize this is Not Working. Nobody wants to have to go to each publisher's website separately to buy multiple books. Does anyone even know who is published by which publisher anyway? So, they will band together and create some sort of uber-site where individual publishers can sign on and be members. Possibly, someone like Apple (iTunes?) will be the storefront for this.

3) All e-books will be encrypted with social DRM (e.g. the eReader scheme of using your credit card number) but will be transferable among the customer's many devices. Publishers won't be happy, but the people will demand this.

4) Print-on-demand (POD) technology will improve and will change the physical bookstore forever. Some people will continue to not be e-book readers and will only want print books. Also, even the e-book fans will want to buy books for gifts. So the 'print run' of the publisher will consist solely of demo copies to stock the bookstore. When a customer at the store wants to buy the book, s/he will take it to the POD machine, scan the barcode and print the book. I envision some customization options here, e.g. you can choose (and pay accordingly) for paperback, 'collector's edition' hard-cover perhaps with some extras to make up for the higher price, large-print, perhaps foreign-language translation on the spot, etc. Also, if it is a gift, you can have it inscribed.

5) A portion of the sale will immediately go to the bookstore to cover their costs in paper etc. for the machine. The remainder will go to the publisher, who will split it with the author according to whatever arrangement they have with that particular author---I am predicting the authors will organize at some point into a professional guild or union that will collective-bargain for better deals, and authors who sell more titles will get bigger shares than novice authors.

6) Bookstores will continue to diversify, as they are now, with many near me now selling paper products, e-book reading devices, coffee and snacks etc. I suspect e-book reading devices and accompaniments (carrying cases etc.) could grow cheaper and cheaper to make and have good profit margins. Also, the whole POD idea could lead to some specialized products right in the bookstore, like those formerly mail-order only books for children which are customized with the child's name.

The bottom line would be more books for sale, more people buying them, and more profit for everyone. The technology is there for e-books now. It's almost there for POD. All they need is for someone to step forward and say 'let's embrace the future and get more people reading books again.' They need to be makers and sellers of books again, not 'gate-keepers of intellectual property' whose primary function if to thwart their paying customers from being pirates and thieves.

So those are my thoughts. How do you think publishers and bookstores will be in the future?
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