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Old 02-18-2015, 12:57 AM   #7
DuaneAA
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Posts: 95
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Minnesota
Device: Samsung Galaxy Note 3 & Kindle Fire HDX
A mere ten years ago the general public wasn't using things like smartphones or tablets or e-ink readers. Then, over a very short two or three year time period, it seemed like almost everyone had one. I think over the next ten years we will see equally radical changes to how we interface with information and that your chart, which only assumes minor tweaks to the current state-of-the-art, is too pessimistic.

We are starting to see the first attempts at the next generation via things like google glasses, head-mounted VR displays, and smart watches. I think about ten years from now they will have progressed to the point where another major shift will occur and most of us will interface to things via a watch-sized central processor/wireless interface, a pair of earbuds, and a small wire-sized fiber optic device capable of beaming very high resolution images directly onto the rods and cones on the back of the eyes. At that point this fiber optic device will be discretely hidden in the frame of glasses, but they will be close to having it operational within contact lenses.

With those kinds of devices available, large smartphones/tablets will be fading away or only used in niche applications.

On the software side, I think this recent article portends a major disruption:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/02/16/c...-announcement/

It is all about a toy, but I think this, in combination with continued improvements in things like Siri and Cortina, indicate we are getting close to useful personal AI assistants. I think within the ten year time frame of the chart shown, this will change how we interact with information as much or more than how smartphones/tablets have changed things over the last ten years.

Each of us will have our own personalized version of Siri or Cortina, which we will mostly interact with via talking. Most of us will have given it a name, and for a small monthly fee, it will talk to us using the voice of our favorite celebrity. In the same way Netflix has already learned what movies and TV shows I like and don't like and generally makes useful recommendations for things I've never seen, our personal assistants will know our likes and dislikes for books and everything else since it will have access to everything we do on the internet. For books, it will either read them to you aloud like the audiobooks of today using distinct, interesting voices for each character or display them through the fiber optic connection.

We are well into the 21st century and everything is changing at an exponentially increasing rate. I think ten years from now, how we interface with things will be very different in the same way I would never have guessed ten years ago that my now 78 year old Mother would spend hours every day using a device like the Ipad.

Duane
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