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"The Martian" is unlikely to win the Hugo just because of the unusual way it was published. To be eligible for the next Hugo Awards, a book must have been first published in 2014. The Martian was self-published a year or two earlier, then brought out by a major publisher in 2014. Thus it was (probably) eligible the year it came out, but didn't have enough readers then to have a good chance to make it on the ballot.
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