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I take an irrationally democratic view of this: I think anyone can become a writer IF they apply themselves and IF they find the right form of writing for them.
One problem with the discussion so far is that it assumes that there is just one singular thing, 'the writer', perhaps like Tolstoy. In reality, there are many different types of writers, different sorts of books and therefore also different types of craft.
Most of us will never be Tolstoys, but we are still capable of producing - for examples - perfectly reasonable history textbooks.
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