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While the article doesn't give much cause for optimism, my point is that there's a lot of evolution to still occur through the marketplace.
Some changes I suspect will evolve:
1) Better multiplatform development environments. This could be wishful thinking in the short run, but Rubicon consulting has just discussed Flash for example as making a bid to take over as the web platform of choice and make the OS irrelevant. Don't remember if Michael Mace wrote that one or someone else. But we get some significant economies of scale if you can write a program once and sell it across the markets for cell phones, Win Mobile smartphones, PalmOS smartphones, Symbian smartphones, etc. That would mean that even with similar levels of sales, the profits for developers would be higher. Or lower sales might even be acceptable on an industry level.
2) Software will get better, easier to use, and more widely accepted.
True, there are people that only get MS Office for their PC and that's the end of it. But as PC software got better, it got more useful, and I believe that helped sales.
3) More people will have mobile devices and be ready to buy. Right now, even if they might be buyers, they probably don't know what's available, don't want to bother learning about it, have problems if they do try, etc. But just like iPods... once they have a friend or neighbor using it and helping them with it, they want one. Same with mobile devices. If everyone has one, and is adding software, then all their friends will be emboldened.
4) The best software will continue to have stronger sales. It will be stuff that "everyone should have." Like MS Office that sells well.
5) The whole mobile market has worldwide potential, and when the worldwide market picks up, it will make for many more sales.
6) Purchases will be easier... people will be able to buy over the air. Right now you have to be pretty adventurous to do that.
7) The whole open source movement will help provide apps. One could argue on the PC platform that open source could put developers out of business also. But I think there's a place for them and they will be able to make money if they have a good product at a reasonable price point. Same for mobile apps. And those apps that everyone needs will get better and better and in many cases there will be open source alternatives. This isn't a joyful thing for professional developers, maybe, but for device users it's great. Already, we see that some of the best software comes for free or nearly free. It's unfathomable how much work people will put into a project they really care about, but nonetheless there's some very generous developers out there (like yourself) that devote countless hours into projects. Whether free, or reasonably priced, I don't think it's all about the money. So even if the market doesn't explode, some of those people will be able to continue to develop software. Some probably won't unfortunately, but hopefully the positive trends will overcome in the long run.
8) Business sales. This could be the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. We aren't seeing much in the way of app sales to businesses at all, even to business people with corporate devices. Assuming security fears don't completely lock down devices, this is a huge market both for company-purchased and user-purchased software.
I agree that there are some serious hurdles and it will make it harder for software developers. Especially Win Mobile and PalmOS developers in the short run. But there's still money to be made, and I think it will explode in the future.
If nothing else, the worldwide market will help, and it will help that mobile devices will be everywhere and familiar to everyone. It's easy to be optimistic when you're not the one suffering the "short run" pain, but I think things will continue strong. On the other hand, one can't completely ignore the short run. As economists say, "In the long run, you're dead." In other words, the long run may not be completely relevant to the current players. We'll see.
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