Smartphone sales are up. That's pretty much common knowledge these days, whether we have good data or not. Just like we are convinced that sales of traditional PDAs are slowing down. But do we really understand what is really driving the increased smartphone sales, and who's doing the selling? Probably not.
Even more interestingly, it turns out that there is a general understanding by mobile device software developers that software sales are dropping off despite strong smartphone sales. So what's going on?
Michael Mace provides a great analysis and some answers in his lastest
Mobile Opportunity post,
Why are mobile application sales dropping? You don't want to miss his article, but here's the bottom line: "
* Palm OS and Windows Mobile, taken as a whole, are not growing. That probably accounts for the decline in app sales on those platforms.
* Smartphones in general are less likely than handhelds to drive app sales. The more handhelds are cannibalized by smartphones, the tougher the application sales process becomes. This would worsen the effect of the flattening demand for Palm OS and Windows Mobile.
* The platform that is producing lots of smartphone growth[, Symbian,] isn't currently a big driver of sales of sophisticated apps."
So smartphone sales growth is driven primarily by Symbian, but people don't even think of Symbian phones as an application platform. PalmOS and Windows Mobile sales are not growing. To make matters worse, many smartphone sales for PalmOS and Win Mobile are for replacement/upgrade purchases, so the buyer already has the software he or she needs. It will be interesting to see how things change in the next few years as the product quality and market penetration increase.
Iimportant note: DON'T PANIC!
We are talking about current trends. The marketplace will work everything out. There is a tendency for mobile fanatics, myself included, to get easily worked up into a frenzy whenever anything seems to infringe upon our private fantasy of a perfect future for the mobile device industry. Life isn't perfect and it never will be. The mobile device industry isn't perfect and it never will be either. But it will be great, nonetheless.
To put things in perspective, the mobile device world is still one of the hottest technology topics, and boasts outstanding growth, especially if you include mobile technology outside of smartphones. It seems that everything is going mobile these days. What a wonderful time to be a mobile device fan!
Don't forget all the doomsayers about the PC industry. There were hurdles and obstacles and uncertainties just like for mobile devices. At first, people said nobody would ever want to use computers. Then experts talked about how expensive they were. Then when the price came down, experts said that nobody could afford to make and sell them anymore because there was no profit in them. Then it was said that the market was saturated and volumes would continue to fall. But the desktop computer is one of the greatest technology success stories of our era, and the same thing will be true of mobile computing solutions in the future. Don't worry, this is going to be a wonderful ride!
Postscript:
I have learned that Mike is not only a fascinating writer and speaker, but that it's impossible to get his input on a topic and not have it affect the way you view the topic. He seems to plant thought seeds that grow into all kinds of new ideas that tumble around in your cranium like in a cement mixer. Fresh perspective is a rare, but wonderful commodity. So if you are interested in mobile computing, be sure to keep up with his blog, Mobile Opportunity. If you are interested in business strategy, be sure to follow his book writing blog, Stop Flying Blind.