[jbcohen]

I would imagine that this is a lot of guess work on amazon management. They need to estimate how popular the new model will be based on the demand for the previous models and sometimes history provides a guide to the future and sometimes it doesn't help at all.

My question for forum members is this: Think back over all of the prvious years that you have been buying and using kindles, how frequently have you seen amazon under estimate the demand for a new kindle product?

Did the under estimation of the demand happen last year when the 2013 paper white was announced? I recall forum members saying the under estimation happened when the 2012 paper white was anounced. How about before that? Think about what is sometimes called new product introductions? This years introduction of the voyage is a good example of a product introduction as well as the introduction of the 2012 paper white. How about when the first model of kindle was introduced? Although at that point the kindle did not have the following that it does today.

Based on what forum members have told me in the past Amazon tends to under estimate the demand when they introduce a new product. Thus Amazon's performance during hte introduction of the voyage really comes as no suprise. Based on previous behavior of amazon I expected amazon to under estimate the demand, so I was advising friends to wait a few months before placing an order for the new product expecting Amazon to underestimate the demand.