Thread: Fire OS4 update coming soon
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Old 10-24-2014, 11:07 PM   #67
Xanthe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hfpop View Post
Yes, but not with the same probability.

If we definitely know there are x days before day D, one day at day D, and y days after day D, and we assume that the probability of the event occurring on a given day to be equal, it means that:

- the probability of the event to happen before the D day is x/(x+y+1);
- the probability of the event to happen on the D day is 1/(x+y+1);
- the probability of the event to happen after the D day is y/(x+y+1).

If my assumption that the daily probabilities are not even is false, then the computation is more complex given how we compute the daily probabilities.
That made my brain hurt...
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