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You know, all these makes me marvel at the fact that Origamis are actually delivered.
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The Origami is just a hardware platform and really is just a minor evolution up from tablets. With the Iliad, it seems to be software issues holding up the release. With the Sony, if the grapevine is to be believed, it sounds like issues with the Connect store are the problem.
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MS already failed with TabletPCs
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That is a matter of opinion, and is highly dependant on what you thought 'success' with tablets was going to be. As a mass market consumer item? Sure, no sales records there. For industries where pen-based computing was already working, the tablet is a big step up in terms of functionality. The big limiting factors are still battery life and weight, and those are exactly what will keep the Origami limited until those issues are resolved.
That and the ridiculous price premium.
At this point, I don't see serious market releases of any of these devices until 2007. Before then, it will all just be a trickle, and even once the doors are open the price tag, particularly for the Iliad, is going to be a big problem.