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There are some excellent posts here. At the risk of stating the obvious, my own opinion is that, subject to a few exceptions, both talent and major backing are required for a book to be a best seller.
The author does, of course, need to attain a certain standard of competency in their writing, which I hesitate to call a minimum standard. I also think that a slightly lesser standard of writing can still succeed where the themes and ideas in a book are very compelling, or are in the public eye at the time. For example, I have read nearly all of Isaac Asimov's work, and regard him as one of the greats. However, I think the actual quality of his writing often took second place to the ideas being conveyed. I'm sure many other examples would be found, if I cared to look, in the recent plethora of vampire fiction.
But the most talented author is not going to succeed if the reading public is not aware of their books. As Joe Konrath pointed out, a writer who has his book selected for the star treatment is the beneificiary of extensive promotion and publicity for that book. And which books and authors receive this treatment has utlimately been the province of a few people in the BWM publishers. And of course, it is not unknown for them to get it wrong, Joe Konrath is also correct when he says that we will never know what may have happened with sales of his own books had they been selected for similar promotion and availability as Lee Child's Jack Reacher books. All we do know is that Lee Child's has been spectacularly successful with not just one, but many books. He clearly has what it takes, and I am sure he will, as he says, continue to do well whatever direction publishing takes.
It may well be that the future publishing world, at least for fiction, gets to the point where most printing is on demand, and ebooks dominate. In this environment, availability is an even playing field. Also, there will be many more authors and many more books. And I doubt that there will be large amounts of money around to be spent on advertising and other promotion. Many have been pondering how best to establish a reputation without a publisher shelling out money on promotion. Some believe Social Media is the answer, but if it is it is not a very satisfactory one. Obviously Amazon and other providers will have an influence, but how will they exercise it? Likewise newspapers (those that survive) and blogs will no doubt be influential. Beyond that, I simply don't know. But for a long time, established best selling authors will continue to have a big advantage, since they have already made their reputation. As will any new best sellers who somehow manage to rise to the top of the new publishing jungle.
One thing I am sure of is that the readers will be the beneficiaries. We are going to have a much greater choice of books at a much lower cost. In fact, our biggest problem is going to be sorting the wheat from the chaff. I think there is a lot of money to be made for any businesses that figure out how to become one of the new gatekeepers.
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