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1. I agree with the theory that friends and family are the first to give reviews.
2. Both Goodreads and Amazon give out early, free copies of books for their loyal users to review. There is no obligation to give a GOOD review, but I suspect that most people will give a higher rating to something that was free. So there's something else that skews the first reviews higher.
3. If a book gets a tons of buzz and great early reviews, then people start having high expectations, which can lead to a backlash and lower reviews later on.
All of these things would change the makeup of reviews within the first year or two. I have no idea what would happen to reviews after the buzz has died down, let's say from year 3 to year 5. Or from year 5 to year 10. What (standalone!) books are people reading today that are 10 years old, anyway? That's a different question: which books of today will have longevity. I do agree that if there are books from 10 years ago that people are still reading and rating favorably today, that's probably a REALLY good book. Moreso than whatever the "book of the summer" is right now.
eP
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