Thread: E-books to outsell print by 2018 says new report
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Old 06-05-2014, 06:16 PM   #4
Nate the great
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fjtorres View Post
The primary reason they are almost certainly wrong is they are predicting that total *monetary* value of ebooks will exceed the retail value of pbooks.
I could see unit sales of ebooks hitting parity within a few years but not the monetary value: the "plateau" being reported in the US is for trabpub ebook revenue which is the result of declining average ebook prices and the continuing growth of indie sales, both of which are lower than pbook prices. The ongoing trends are for lower average ebook prices and higher pbook prices (big declines in the cheaper mmpb, minimal to modest growth in the more expensive formats). Even sticking with tradpub titles there is a minimum 50% spread between ebook and pbook prices ($8-12+). Factor in indie titles and the average ebook price drops to ~$6 so ebooks would have to outsell pbooks two to one to achieve monetary parity. Right now the ratio is two-to-one the other way. Even a total collapse of the remaining mmpb market won't get e books that far in 18 months or even 36.

PwC is probably using old ebook pricing numbers in their projections and underestimating indie ebook sales volume. Too optimistic. There's lots of growth left in ebooks but that growth is coming at the low end.
This would make a great comment on my blog post.
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