ploum,
It sounds like you've spent a lot of time researching the issue, certainly seems Kobo specific if it's doing it with a number of routers, hopefully Kobo will hit on the exact issue and be able to resolve it.
Someone mentioned that Kobo was trying to streamline or speed up connection times and that this bug may have been introduced at that time... If it works sometimes, perhaps some logic is failing in terms of whether to request a new connection rather than relying on the current lease still being valid, or something similar.
Good luck emulating the Orkin Man, Kobo.
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