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Originally Posted by Lemurion
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Speaking as someone with a degree in statistics, her points are valid, to a degree (though she can't see that a flat file allows her to put in any DB she wants is a bit silly. Speaking as data guy IRL, I prefer the flat file so I can move the data to where I want.). She how ever did not point out anything that the authors of the studies did not disclose, so there really is no new information in that article. Hugh has publically stated all of those weaknesses, and also stated they are working with a new data set that is expanded considerably. I personally am more interested in that expanded data set, and hope it dips into the midlist more.
The real untold story is the army of indies and trad pubs that are not in the top 10%. How do they compare? Wall Street Journal and others have all reported that indies make up 1/3rd of the market which is strong support for what Hugh posted... but I would love to know what that looks like lower in the ranks. I know what *MY* numbers are, and I am amazed by people that say "indie books dont sell" or "a book sells 100-200 copies in a life time and that is it" because that is not my experience, nor the experience of others who I have access to.
The past 3-5 years have shaken up the market tremendously and we lack any real data to predict soundly the next 5. There just is not enough history yet. What is the lifespan of an ebook? 1 year? 10? 100? Do tactics like serialized novels, loss leaders, permafree, and play well in the long term? Do fast hitting spikes to the top ten on Amazon matter in 5, 10 or 15 years? Do we have any way to guess that? What is the long term impact of KDP Select or Sony's collapse? If B&N folds, or survives, what impact will that have? What will be the long term impact to sites like Oyster, Nokboo, and Scribd which give unlimited books for a flat price?
I think Hugh's report is good for what it claims to be - a snapshot of a specific market at a specific point in time. The inferences drawn from may go too far, or not far enough, depending on your personal bias, but what it does show is that some Self-pubs are killing it out there, and proving that self-pub is a very viable way to go.