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Bob Russell · 04-23-2006, 08:19 AM

As much as I'd like to see e-books as mainstream, I think it will be a while longer. Right now you really have to want to use e-book reader, or at least be willing to mess with document conversions and file movement and another tech gadget. MP3 players took quite a while and didn't get popular until iPod/iTunes caught on, but there's a much greater drive for portable music than portable books.

While I haven't had the pleasure of playing with one of the new e-ink devices, I think they are not going to be perfect yet for the average guy on the street. The ones that use them are either comfortable with tech devices and computers, or serious book lovers/users.

The adoption curve is ramping up, but believe it or not, I think that we might need standalone wireless ebook readers that can pull content from servers over some ubiquitous network, or inexpensive and simple ways to get content on a card or some kind of convenient storage media. Books on SD cards at your local bookstore maybe? People are unlikely to want to fool with computers and downloads and conversions to read a book. And expensive prices for e-books added to the complexity of the device will turn off the average consumer.

But even mp3 players had a rapidly increasing following and we saw devices in the local consumer electronics outlets way before iPod craze had become big.

The biggest question may not be are we at the edge of mainstream, but might be the following... "When ebook reading becomes mainstream, will it still be on a dedicated device, or will it be part of a comprehensive personal media device with e-ink display and music/video/book capabilities all wrapped up in one nice small package?"

Hey, maybe it will even be a phone with a bluetooth headset and a roll-out flexible display. But don't look for this year to be the year of seeing multiple ebook reading devices on your local train, plane or subway. It may start popping up all over, but more like a novelty item. (Like smartphones were until the last year or so.)

The main thing to remember is that the adoption curve will be slower than mp3 players and cell phones and even personal video players. People read books, but they just aren't as crazy about them as for music and mobile phones.

We'll know when the infrastructure and technology is ready when it shows up consistently in executive offices. It's a perfect tool for them, especially combined with workflow functionality and document markup capabilities. In fact, call that a prediction... when we see an easy to use e-ink reader device that is tied effectively into popular workflow software, we'll see it explode across the corporate world. Well, unless the alternatives like smartphones or umpc's do it better.

Pretty soon it's going to be hard to know what to call a device because it's going to do so much. Right now we fear convergence because of all the compromises in form factor and usability. But when the technology is advanced enough to make things easy to use, why not be able to do "everything" from a device, whether it's a handheld or origami sized?

04-23-2006, 08:19 AM	#2
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	As much as I'd like to see e-books as mainstream, I think it will be a while longer. Right now you really have to want to use e-book reader, or at least be willing to mess with document conversions and file movement and another tech gadget. MP3 players took quite a while and didn't get popular until iPod/iTunes caught on, but there's a much greater drive for portable music than portable books. While I haven't had the pleasure of playing with one of the new e-ink devices, I think they are not going to be perfect yet for the average guy on the street. The ones that use them are either comfortable with tech devices and computers, or serious book lovers/users. The adoption curve is ramping up, but believe it or not, I think that we might need standalone wireless ebook readers that can pull content from servers over some ubiquitous network, or inexpensive and simple ways to get content on a card or some kind of convenient storage media. Books on SD cards at your local bookstore maybe? People are unlikely to want to fool with computers and downloads and conversions to read a book. And expensive prices for e-books added to the complexity of the device will turn off the average consumer. But even mp3 players had a rapidly increasing following and we saw devices in the local consumer electronics outlets way before iPod craze had become big. The biggest question may not be are we at the edge of mainstream, but might be the following... "When ebook reading becomes mainstream, will it still be on a dedicated device, or will it be part of a comprehensive personal media device with e-ink display and music/video/book capabilities all wrapped up in one nice small package?" Hey, maybe it will even be a phone with a bluetooth headset and a roll-out flexible display. But don't look for this year to be the year of seeing multiple ebook reading devices on your local train, plane or subway. It may start popping up all over, but more like a novelty item. (Like smartphones were until the last year or so.) The main thing to remember is that the adoption curve will be slower than mp3 players and cell phones and even personal video players. People read books, but they just aren't as crazy about them as for music and mobile phones. We'll know when the infrastructure and technology is ready when it shows up consistently in executive offices. It's a perfect tool for them, especially combined with workflow functionality and document markup capabilities. In fact, call that a prediction... when we see an easy to use e-ink reader device that is tied effectively into popular workflow software, we'll see it explode across the corporate world. Well, unless the alternatives like smartphones or umpc's do it better. Pretty soon it's going to be hard to know what to call a device because it's going to do so much. Right now we fear convergence because of all the compromises in form factor and usability. But when the technology is advanced enough to make things easy to use, why not be able to do "everything" from a device, whether it's a handheld or origami sized?