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For the most part, the 12 books/year crowd isn't interested.
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I would tend to agree with this statement. I don't think paperbooks will disappear in the near future. I think we will reach a plateau and then ereaders will gradually outrank paperbooks as the youngest population grows older.
While your Mom is a technophobe, I can guarantee that a LOT of old folks love ereaders because they can read better with them than large print books. They have training sessions once a month now at the library (3 or 4 the 2 weeks after Christmas) and most of the attendees are over 50 and happy with their ereaders. My Mom is 80 in less than a week and she's ready to give up all her paperbacks for her ereader. Took her awhile to warm up to it, but she's on book 4 of
The Song of Ice and Fire and loving it. What the technology that they will be using will look like in 10 years - I haven't a clue. I can barely remember what playing music was like before the Ipod.