Quote:
Originally Posted by meeera
NASA tells me the next total solar eclipse over NYC will be in 2079, yet she named eight recent breakout self-publishers off the top of her head.
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Have you done the math?
If you check out the probability on any given day there will be a total eclipse over New York City, and the probability that any given indie author will join the breakout group, perhaps they aren't so different.
About 300,000 books are published in the US each year. Within an order of magnitude of accuracy, this could mean 100,000 new indie authors. Let's say there are four of these who have that breakout. That comes to 1 in 25,000.
Total solar eclipses are coming to New York City in 2079, 2144, and 2200. Three every 200 years or so works out to about one day in 24,000. Not too shabby for Ms. Kendall.
Now, if you take into account that the next total New York City solar eclipse after than is in 2866, she is too pessimistic. But for the next couple hundred years, she's on target.
The serious point is -- don't quit your day job.