From Joe Konrath's blog, 10 predictions for 2014:
http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/2013/1...ions-2014.html
Some are definitely going to happen because he intends to make them happen.
Quote:
Libraries will have the opportunity to buy ebooks at a fair price, with fair usage, directly from authors. Namely me and those who join me via a new company I'm starting.
...
Permafree will be monetized. The ebook library company I'm starting will help fund another ebook company I'm also starting, one where authors will earn money via free ebook downloads. More soon.
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Others are a bit of reach but not out of the question:
Quote:
The end of Barnes & Noble as we know it. In 2014, paper book sales will no longer be significant enough to sustain the nation's largest bookstore chain. There may be bankruptcy and restructuring and the selling of assets (like the Nook), but ultimately it will result in many stores closing, and possibly the demise of the brand.
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Quote:
Big 5 mergers and layoffs and bankruptcies. As the publishing cartel loses its quasi-monopoly on paper distribution, there will be no way to support its infrastructure. Manhattan rent, in-house employees with benefits, length of time to publish, and the temptation for authors to avoid legacy and self-pub, will bring down the industry. There is too much waste, their share of the pie is getting smaller, and when B&N disappears there will be no way to recover.
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Also pretty much a given:
Quote:
Legacy will fight back. We've seen some push-back from those invested in the legacy industry. The collusion, the Authors Guild, the AAR, Patterson and King and Russo. But these were all just warning shots across the bow. They're afraid, and rightfully so, but not desperate yet.
Desperation will eventually settle in. And I don't expect it to be pretty.
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Where Dean Wesley Smith likely underestimates ebook tech over the long haul, Konrath likely overestimates its short term impact, but both are putting their money where their opinions are and doing nicely so it's worth keeping them in mind.
Lots more from Konrath at the source.
(And the comments are worth checking out.)