MobileRead Forums - View Single Post - Cover story Writer's Digest: Future of Ebooks, Amazon, etc.

bill_mchale · 10-06-2008, 09:50 AM

I agree that there is a danger of one player dominating the market. That being said, I am not sure that it is Amazon with the Kindle. Yep, its been the big seller for this past year, but I am not convinced it has been quite as dominating as the IPod was on the music industry. At least not yet.

I think the biggest difference between the Kindle and the iPod is this; the iPod entered a world where young people (by and large the driving force of the modern music industry) were already conditioned to listen to their music using ear phones on small devices (i.e., the various walkman and like products that proceded mp3 players). When a digital music player finally got elements right (easy to use device, store, fashion statement...) it took off. In much less than a year, all other digital music players were also rans to the iPod.

In contrast, the Kindle certainly has been a significant player, but e-Book readers still very much remain a niche product. In general, I would say the bulk of current e-Book reader buyers are both serious readers and also early adopters. They make up a significant, but by no means a dominating position in the market place for books. The book market is, I believe, more fragmented in demographics.

I don't know what the current numbers are, but I suspect that a large percentage of book sales are to people who buy only a few books a year. At current prices, dedicated readers do not make sense to this demographic. If you spend $100 a year on books, its hard to justify spending $350 just so you can buy more books.

I think there is a reason why Stanza and fictionwise have both seen quite a few of their readers downloaded for the iPod Touch. They are cheap (i.e. free) applications that can be downloaded easily to a device people already have. In addition, they offer a reasonably pleasing reader experience. In just 2 months they have accounted for enough book downloads that Forbes and other media outlets have taken notice. Sure they may not match the experience of e-Ink, but for the casual reader, they are fine.

So ironically, I think the device that could end up dominating the e-Book market is actually the same device that dominated the digital music market.

--
Bill

10-06-2008, 09:50 AM	#8
bill_mchale Wizard Posts: 1,451 Karma: 1550000 Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Maryland, USA Device: Nook Simple Touch, HPC Evo 4G LTE	I agree that there is a danger of one player dominating the market. That being said, I am not sure that it is Amazon with the Kindle. Yep, its been the big seller for this past year, but I am not convinced it has been quite as dominating as the IPod was on the music industry. At least not yet. I think the biggest difference between the Kindle and the iPod is this; the iPod entered a world where young people (by and large the driving force of the modern music industry) were already conditioned to listen to their music using ear phones on small devices (i.e., the various walkman and like products that proceded mp3 players). When a digital music player finally got elements right (easy to use device, store, fashion statement...) it took off. In much less than a year, all other digital music players were also rans to the iPod. In contrast, the Kindle certainly has been a significant player, but e-Book readers still very much remain a niche product. In general, I would say the bulk of current e-Book reader buyers are both serious readers and also early adopters. They make up a significant, but by no means a dominating position in the market place for books. The book market is, I believe, more fragmented in demographics. I don't know what the current numbers are, but I suspect that a large percentage of book sales are to people who buy only a few books a year. At current prices, dedicated readers do not make sense to this demographic. If you spend $100 a year on books, its hard to justify spending $350 just so you can buy more books. I think there is a reason why Stanza and fictionwise have both seen quite a few of their readers downloaded for the iPod Touch. They are cheap (i.e. free) applications that can be downloaded easily to a device people already have. In addition, they offer a reasonably pleasing reader experience. In just 2 months they have accounted for enough book downloads that Forbes and other media outlets have taken notice. Sure they may not match the experience of e-Ink, but for the casual reader, they are fine. So ironically, I think the device that could end up dominating the e-Book market is actually the same device that dominated the digital music market. -- Bill