MobileRead Forums - View Single Post - Gartner report says Origami needs better hardware

Bob Russell · 03-18-2006, 02:26 PM

Actually, I see it a little differently, and a bit more along the lines of Gartner and (yes) Microsoft. That they are a new product category that will certainly cannibalize some sales in laptops and pdas, but in contrast to the size of the new market it will open, I don't think it will be significant. Especially relative to pdas. (If you are looking forward to when there may be technology to carry keyboard input and bigger display, like rollable screens, with the pda in your pocket then I would agree that a pda might overlap with that UMPC market, but those things are well out in the future.)

Laptops, maybe they'll be overlapped with UMPC, but it depends on how the keyboard issues is resolved. And, like Gartner, I don't see it becoming a huge seller until the specs are better and we have decent batter/price options.

But mostly, I just don't really think these are close to replacements for cell phones, pdas or smartphones. The advantage of the smallest devices are that they fit on your belt, or in your pocket/purse without bulk, so you have them with you all the time. The origami/UMPC devices are not going to be a "carry with you all the time" device, so I think that will keep the markets separate. And the very fact that pdas are so small means they will never really compete with laptops, and I don't think with Origami either.

The advantage of a UMPC is that it's easier to pick up and use than a notebook, plus it has touch input. It's going to be aimed at people who want quick and easy, grab and go. And, of course, nearly full desktop capabilities and compatibility. I think that's going to become (but is not yet) a powerful combination, especially if the keyboard issue gets resolved. For example, the cloth keyboard built into Origami cases, or even a thin keyboard that makes the Origami device a convertible into a notebook (which is what I would personally prefer).

But just like every other "expert", I'm guessing. It will take time to see what really happens. It's hard to argue that anyone's views at this point are off-base, because the future is wide open, and we don't know what the OS or hardware technologies will bring!

03-18-2006, 02:26 PM	#3
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	Actually, I see it a little differently, and a bit more along the lines of Gartner and (yes) Microsoft. That they are a new product category that will certainly cannibalize some sales in laptops and pdas, but in contrast to the size of the new market it will open, I don't think it will be significant. Especially relative to pdas. (If you are looking forward to when there may be technology to carry keyboard input and bigger display, like rollable screens, with the pda in your pocket then I would agree that a pda might overlap with that UMPC market, but those things are well out in the future.) Laptops, maybe they'll be overlapped with UMPC, but it depends on how the keyboard issues is resolved. And, like Gartner, I don't see it becoming a huge seller until the specs are better and we have decent batter/price options. But mostly, I just don't really think these are close to replacements for cell phones, pdas or smartphones. The advantage of the smallest devices are that they fit on your belt, or in your pocket/purse without bulk, so you have them with you all the time. The origami/UMPC devices are not going to be a "carry with you all the time" device, so I think that will keep the markets separate. And the very fact that pdas are so small means they will never really compete with laptops, and I don't think with Origami either. The advantage of a UMPC is that it's easier to pick up and use than a notebook, plus it has touch input. It's going to be aimed at people who want quick and easy, grab and go. And, of course, nearly full desktop capabilities and compatibility. I think that's going to become (but is not yet) a powerful combination, especially if the keyboard issue gets resolved. For example, the cloth keyboard built into Origami cases, or even a thin keyboard that makes the Origami device a convertible into a notebook (which is what I would personally prefer). But just like every other "expert", I'm guessing. It will take time to see what really happens. It's hard to argue that anyone's views at this point are off-base, because the future is wide open, and we don't know what the OS or hardware technologies will bring!