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I look at this from a completely different perspective. Can anyone name a single important work that copyright prevents me from obtaining in a reasonable amount of time, generally minutes, and at a reasonable cost, generally free?
So the impact is really limited to the legal distribution of works. That's it. Nothing else. So from that perspective, the longer the better; the more incentive it is to create. I personally wouldn't care if copyrights continued in perpetuity, with the stipulation that they must be renewed by interested parties after some reasonable period of time and potentially at some nominal cost.
Orphan works are an issue, but a different one.
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