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The first Christie novel, The Mysterious Affair at Styles, is now 93 years old and still read by the millions.
I lately re-read the bulk of Aggie's mystery output (not the Westmacotts) and found that as well as the detective aspect, she tells a good story well. Not, I agree, a "fine writer". But a good enough one, telling an enjoyable story, with characters who are, while you are reading, lively and agreeable.
I would say "great" for sure.
However, you can't predict these things. You not only have to be popular with the general public in your own time, but continue to be popular long after you're dead, and that's a very difficult feat, achieved by few--and predicted by fewer.
I can't think that Jane Austen imagined, even for a minute, that she'd still and loved be read 200 years after she died.
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