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Those are both pretty good scenarios but I would have to go with a depends as well. While current ebook readers and those into technology have no problem accepting ebooks as the standard, there are many out there that are dead set against giving up paper. I can see scenario one becoming a strong possibility if SOny hires a marketing team as good as apple did with the iPod.
Sony could greatly increase the adoption of this technology if they worked with the department of education and text book publishers. If they offered these to schools at a greatly discounted prices with the text books of their choices, also sold to schools at a discount, it would be a win situation for all involved. Schools would save money. Kids would save their backs. Publishers, though selling at a lower price, could more than recoup that cost with the elimination of the cost of the actual paper book and Sony would win by getting kids to grow up accepting ebooks as the norm.
Sony has the marketing muscle and capital to make this scenario possible.
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