I'll stay on the fence for now and say, "It depends."
I agree with your two scenarios, but will offer a third. Sony could do as they have done in the past and use draconian DRM, their own proprietary formats, and charge a price premium the their e-books and device. If they were the only player, this would be bad and could stifle the e-book market. With others entering the market like iRex technologies and Jinke, Sony could price themselves out of the market and lose the format battle. Because of the past false starts in the e-book market combined with Sony's history, I think a lot of publishers might look at the alternative instead of staking their future soley on Sony. Let's just hope that iRex Technologies can attract large book and newspaper publishers to make things competitive, and I wouldn't forget about the possibility of other major consumer electronics/computer makers to enter the e-book market with a device (or devices) tied to a content deliver system. A certain company in Cupertino comes to mind.
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