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Old 01-16-2013, 05:37 AM   #33
PatNY
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But fjtorres, they did quote specific numbers for both original and amended order quantities, so the percentages can be derived from that. From the CNET article you linked to:

Quote:
According to the New York Times, which spoke with NPD DisplaySearch analyst Paul Semenza, Apple had expected to order 19 million displays for its iPhone 5 in January, but cut it to between 11 million and 14 million.
From that bit of information, it means orders fell between 26% (using the 14 million number) and 42% (using the 11 million number).

That's still pretty high, even if you discount the original 50% drop estimate.

In sheer numbers they dropped from between 5 to 8 million or from 26-42% of original orders.

Let's split the difference for the sake of this discussion and say the orders dropped by 6.5 million, which sounds like a fair estimate based on the CNET information. That's a 34% drop.

I have no experience in manufacturing, but don't you think it's fair to say that defective screens would run no more than about 3% (or 570,000 screens out of a 19 million order)? Even that seems high to me, but let's assume that is the number.

So then if you subtract that 3% rate for the previous quarter's "improved yields" from the 34% overall drop, then you're left with a 31% drop in orders due to decreased demand.

So maybe the 50% drop as initially reported was inaccurate. But a 31% drop due to revised sales projections still seems pretty high to me.

--Pat
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