[fjtorres]

1- The core eink technology didn't change for two-plus years until the KPW and Kobo Glo came out in november.
2- Nobody is supporting any significant improvements in ebook content on dedicated readers (no, drop caps and typographical tricks don't enable new content availability).
3- Existing readers work fine, the batteries still hold charge, and with decent care don't break easy.
4- The percentage of the population that can take advantage of dedicated readers is closer to 30% than 100%.
5- With dedicated readers in the hands of 20% of the population (two-thirds of their natural audience) replacement sales are as big a sales driver as young people picking up the reading habit and older people learning to appreciate digital readers.

Anybody who has actually used a dedicated reader for a while can add those up and expect a slowdown in dedicated devices right about now. Especially in view of #4.

Doesn't mean ebook adoption is going to slow down as much because multifunction devices such as smartphones and tablets can bring the benefits of ebook reading to casual readers who can't justify buying a dedicated device but are getting a phone or tablet for other reasons. But its going to take a *lot* of multifunction devices to drive ebook sales as much as a typical dedicated device does. Probably about 10-20 to one.

So dedicated devices will still be the core of the ebook retail world; they just won't be the totality.

The naysayers simply ignore the fact that dedicated readers totally exploded in the 2010-11 timeframe and crammed an entire generation of adoption into a calendar year or so. Until new tech or attrition starts a new, upgrade and replacement-driven boom, the big money is going to be in serving ebooks to the installed base. And that is money that will filter in, day-by-day over the entire year, not in one big seasonal buy.

The sky ain't falling but some players are going to be hurting.