Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward
Tracking the actual traffic content will prove what? A ratio of unauthorized downloads to authorized downloads? (Assuming that there are authorized downloads for certain works.) It won't prove that the downloads are actual lost sales, as there would be no way to show that said downloader would have bought the download anyway.
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True... as I said, even accurate data will only allow you to
infer a relationship. There's no way to say, with any absolute certainty, that
this illicit download is a substitute for
that legal download.
So, in the long run, it's probably pointless to try. Instead, producers should be trying to create scenarios that can deal with the vagueness of the numbers,
infer profits from specific marketing methods, and largely ignore all but the most significant theft losses.
Mediums like television work from these inferred data now... even with Nielsen ratings and cable boxes, much of the "direct correlation" figures used by networks to state how many people watch
this, or buy a product because of
that commercial, is sheer estimation... cause and effect, but with no concrete link between them. "This show is popular (by our guesses), and when we advertise product X during that show, there is an increase in purchases... therefore there is a link." American television (and radio) advertising is based on these estimates, and are satisfied with the fact that the results seem to support their conjectures, and an entire industry is run on supposition.
Much like a car engine's hydraulic transmission, which transmits motion from engine to wheels without a solid connection, e-book producers will have to use what data is available to work out the fluidic connection between marketing and profits, and settle for the best result that fluidity will allow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward
And the only people who can act now are the publishers and the authors. Particularlly the publishers, and they aren't doing anything constructive.
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Yes, the ball is in their court... they are dribbling in-place, instead of moving the ball into play... and eventually, if they don't get going, the clock will run out on them.