[no.guru]

Thanks for your comments. There's certainly a case to be made either way.

I'm reminded of the John F. Kennedy quote (quoting someone else) about there being no hurry in planting a tree that takes 100 years to mature: "In that case, there is no time to lose; plant it this afternoon!"

I agree there were and always are plenty of uncertainties. A new device would have been a big investment, and I'm not second-guessing Gates in whether or not he made a wise decision, hindsight and all. However, basically the same barriers of transition for the industry would have existed, then or years later, and a decade could see the birth and death of generations of technology.

Sony's readers can be traced as far back as 1991, possibly other company's readers as well. Sony and Microsoft competing in ereaders in the late 90s could have been very interesting to see.

If the ebook's popularity could have begun in 1998, the Microsoft that existed then very possibly could have made it happen.