Quote:
Originally Posted by hidari
As Kunstler said, The Suburbs are the greatest waste of resources in the history of mankind. That experiment is over or will be for a large number of people... Unless you have the money to maintain it...
"There's too much money to be made from people (like me) who refuse to give up their suburban lifestyle."
|
I disagree with Kunstler. What does a suburban lifestyle take? Cheap energy, cheap land, and limited political demands. Currently we're choking on cheap energy part. Will this be always?
I'll use myself for an example. a 220 sq meter (2200 sq foot) single story house, built in 1983, in an affluent suburb 30 miles from a major city downtown in North Texas. Peak monthly energy usage was 3150 Kw hours in an extremely hot (avg 108 F for highs) August, with no energy efficiency retrofiting done. Somewhat over 3000 sq ft roof area of which 750 sq ft is prime southern exposure, 1600 sq ft E/W exposure, the rest is useless northern exposure.
Solar at 14 per cent efficency is around 10 watt per sq foot. At 5 hrs at this location (Dept. Of Energy estimate for the area). 750 sq ft x 5 hrs x 30 days x 10 watts per sq ft / 1000 (conversion to Kilowatts) = 1125 Kw hours. E/W gives 1600 sq ft x 2.5 hrs (half of the southern exposure) x 30 days x 10 watts per sq ft / 1000 = 1200Kw hours. combined = 2325 KW hrs. The reality will be somewhat more, as extreme peak loads in Texas alway occur under a clear sky, and long days (increasing the 5 hrs per day average somewhat) - say 2500 Kw hrs. I'm short 650 Kw hours. Swapped out incandesent for compact fluorescent - saved 100 Kw Hrs (measured!). Placed solar (light/heat reducing screens) on the window. Based on other people's estimates (I just got them installed last week) - 400 to 500 Kw hrs off peak air-conditioning bill. Next spring, radiant barrier in attic, should save another 300+ Kw hours. Peak load (probably) reduced to 3150 - 100 - 400 - 300 = 2350 Kw hrs. Solar at peak = 2325 (2500 maybe). Energy breakeven for the house, using wasted rooftop area and no whining about carbon footprint.
But what about the price? Currently it would cost around $120,000 US dollars.
Way too expensive - today. 5-10 years, probably half that. My breakeven estimate is $50,000 USD (20 yr amortization). Coming soon...
The car. Well, the Tesla has an electric car with a 200 mile range and 185 Kw hrs of batteries. Or just under a Kw hr a mile. At 2000 miles a month 1850 Kw hrs. Double that for a 4 dr car and you're talking, say, 4000 Kw hrs for transportation. Build some more nuke plants to go with Comanche Peak....
This is all based on last year's technology. There are so many new breakthroughs occuring in both solar and batteries that is almost frightening. I might be getting 30 percent efficentcy on my rooftop installation. (The Germaniun/Lens with heat exchanger setup is talking north of 40 per cent efficent. Who knows?) And I'm not even looking at the new horizontal wing wind generators....
Cheap land? Well, you could give every person in the US a 1000 Sq meter lot in Texas and still have a lot of Texas left over. No problem here in Texas.
Limited political demand. Here's the
real sticking point. Command and control works much better in an urban environment than a suburban environment. People who want command and control politics
hate the suburbs. And the current energy shortage/global warming is an excuse to disrepect the suburban lifestyle. Give up you space, give up your freedom to go anywhere, anytime. (your car) Live in a little world with no way out. Well, this Texan's not a sheep.