[Brian]

Originally Posted by hacker

Nope, in fact they're all evolving the same direction.

I've said many times, many years ago, that the computers of "today" (circa early to mid-90's) WILL go away, and the OS you normally run will just be run over the network, or you'll run multiple operating systems at the same time on the same hardware, etc. Computers are nothing more than "data terminals", with a bit more brains. That's all they should be. Just let me get to my data.

If I'm asking for my data on a handheld, display it appropriately. If I'm asking for it on a desktop with a large screen and more input methods (keyboard, mouse, voice), give me more capabilities.

The Internet is your network, the network is your OS, and your device is simply a "window" to that environment. Nothing more need be included.

Also, this migration to "handhelds" is sure to backfire on the industry in a very real and financially-painful way. There are hundreds upon hundreds of companies who WILL NOT adopt handhelds because of the enormous liability issues associated with them. Government, pharmaceutical, healthcare are the three big ones that immediately come to mind. How do you secure and track your assets? What about retention? How do you stop someone from "cloning" your handheld while its at home?

The solution, clearly, is to make the handheld nothing more than a "terminal" to the information stored elsewhere. Think Bladerunner here, and you'll get the idea. Priviledged information is stored remotely, non-priviledged is stored (or "cached", if you will) locally (mirrored remotely as well).

And guess what? You won't know (or care) where the information is stored, as long as you have immediate access to it when you need it. If your network (the Internet) is fast enough, and access to your data through that interface is just as fast and responsive as if it was local, what do you care?

This is where the future is going. Devices will begin to be "repurposable" upon demand. You'll see devices that connect together (literally) to add capabilities. A PDA connecting to a docking station is one example of this (though not a long-term solution, of course).

Being able to decouple a smartphone's phone component and switch in a GPS component or a thumbboard component instead of a touchscreen, will be key to the device's survival. If you're watching the industry closely, you'll see that convergence is dying and device "personality" is gaining in popularity. Click your "tablet" into a keyboard and now you've got a laptop.

This is the future. Who cares about "The Device". Its the data that matters. The device is simply a way to get to that data. Let it become whatever you need it to become, for the purposes of manipulating that data.

Hacker,

While I agree with you that in the future that "thin clients" and network computing will play a major role, I think there are a couple of important points that you're overlooking:

1. "Smartphones" and handhelds are and will become the primary computing, communications, and web access device for a vast majority of the world's population for a number of reasons, especially in developing countries. Handhelds and smartphones will be a driving force to bridge the "digital divide". See these articles:

http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ory_id=3742817

http://cbdd.typepad.com/global/2004/...mpact_in_.html

2. Until ultra-high speed broadband is widely available in most homes and 3G + wireless broadband can reach a majority of mobile users, most information will be stored locally. As the price/GB for magnetic and flash memory storage continues to decline and capacities continue to grow which allow handheld devices to store tens of GBs of data, it's more cost effective and quicker to store as much data as possible locally.

3. A lot of people will be hesitant to store very sensitive and personal data online and don't trust the web. Just look at the spread of online identity theft, hacking into sites to obtain your financial and personal data, and companies failing to adequately protect your personal data (unencrypted tapes "falling off" trucks on the way to data store centers) and I think it's pretty clear that it will take a significant amount of time and improvements in internet security before the vast majority of people are comfortable keeping all of their data online.

4. I don't agree with your argument that "hundreds upon hundreds" of companies will not deploy handhelds for the reasons you provide. If you watch the SoulPad demo, it's an encrypted system that requires both password and hardware key authentication. Add biometrics like a fingerprint scanner to your portable device and programs like mSafe, and I think these security issues could be easily overcome.

Brian