Quote:
Originally Posted by bill_mchale
So, lets say (if we ever know the hard numbers) that running that calculation we discover that on average .01 civilizations are born every year.
Now back to L which is the average length of time such a civilization will broadcast signals into space. If L is relatively short, say 100 years, then on average, only one (100 * .01) such civilization will generally exist at one time. If L is larger, like 500, 1000, or 10,000 years, then we get 5, 10 or a 100 civilizations co-existing.
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The only thing I take issue with there is the .01 you've suggested as the number of civilizations born every year. I'd guess at that number being a lot closer to .000000001 or so... see what that does to the calculation? It gets mighty lonely out here.