Quote:
Originally Posted by stonetools
Suppose Random House, the biggest of the publishers, buy out the settlement three. Then what?
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Well, if we're talking a few years down the road and the companies have not changed their workflows, strategies, and overhead... Nothing.
By then their aggregate marketshare, compared to the New Publishers, wouldn't represent any significant concentration of market power and regulators wouldn't even blink at approving the deal.
That kind of concentration is actually *common*; aging, failing companies being outcompeted often huddle together to try to consolidate their fading share and maintain relevance.
We've seen it in lots of industries; autos, for one.
But the clearest example is the story of Computer Associates in the 90's; they routinely ranked right beside Microsoft among the biggest software companies in the world for years. But where MS grew by addressing a growing new market and developing new products, CA grew by buying distressed companies and stripping them and living off their existing products.
Pretty much what we can expect to happen with the BPHs if they don't change. There will be value in their back catalog long after their day to day operations cease being cost-effective. (Just look at MGM, how it keeps being sold and resold because of its IP and brand even though there isn't much of a studio there anymore.)
So your scenario is actually quite likely, say circa 2020.