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Kind of goes to show that people who pirate don't generally buy.
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Actually, I've seen many studies that say the exact opposite, that many that freely download some of their media, purchase just as much if not more than everyone else. The others, who can't/won't purchase are irrelevant because nothing you do will make, convince, or give them the capability to buy.
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I wonder if people have really stopped piracy or simply learnt to cover their tracks better.
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Should be relatively easy to find out. Look at France's cumulative internet traffic, if it's gone down downloading has slowed, if it's stayed the same people have found ways to cover their tracks.
Speaking as someone who has consumed lots of free media (books, music, videos, and video games from the public library), I highly doubt I would increase my spending on media if that source was shut down. In fact I would probably spend less since most of my purchases were based on discovering things I like from the library (and other free sources).