Quote:
Originally Posted by Penforhire
Ralph, I think I'm paying around $0.19 per kW-hour and my regional power cost is high (So Cal). $0.25 in ten years doesn't sound like a bargain. I like the idea of a decentralized grid but the lowest-cost clean solution, without government sponsorship, should win.
In ten years you may be right, that solar or whatever alternative source will be cheap enough. The solar energy storage cost (cracking water in your example) still has to be paid for. I think it is more likely that natural gas generators proliferate, even though I'd prefer to see nuclear investment. The Bloom Energy fuel cell has an outrageous efficiency (and can run on more than natural gas), natural gas reserves continue to grow, and that fuel cell achieves a similar decentralized effect as solar.
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Choose your cord -electric line or nat gas line. Same thing...
There's a big difference between Watt cost and KW-Hour cost. The Watt cost is amortized over the effective lifespan of the panel (say 10-20 years), plus the average number of hours a day. In DFW that's 5 hours a day (average). So - $2 a watt x 1000 watts = $2000 kilowatt. $2000KW /5 hours a day = $400 a kilowatt/hour. $400KW / 365 days = just over $1 a KW. divide by 10 = $.10 a Kilowatt hour equivalent.
But in reality, you'll need to multiply by 3 to account for installation costs as well as an inverter to change the DC to AC for use (no jokes, please). So call it around $.30 a KW hour. Your centrally generated power is still cheaper, so nobody does it.
Change $2 to $.50 and you may get to $.07 to $.10 a KW/hour. That becomes real competitive...