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It's impossible to prove that an instance of a document on the darknet directly results in a "lost sale," since you cannot prove that a document would have been bought if it was not available on the darknet. However, when there are statements published publicly on the web that specifically state, "I downloaded X from the darknet," it is logical to assume that the specified action MAY have substituted for a sale... that there is at least a small percentage of likelihood of a lost sale.
Projecting that into the estimated size and scope of the darknet, and even a small percentage can represent a significant (though still estimated) figure. Since much of business is based on figures derived essentially from estimations, it's not surprising that publishers believe these figures to be as good as solid.
Whatever the "reality" of the darknet is, what is probably more significant to the publisher is the appearance of it. Imagine if you wanted to open a store on a storefront, and right outside the store was a mob of kids, greedy hands outstretched, acting like they wanted to run in and steal your goods the minute you opened your door. They don't even have to really mean it... the impression alone may be enough to set a store owner off, and prompt them to install extra security, or even to move their store to another block.
There may never be hard numbers on the darknet, but the impression alone is enough to set publishers off. If we want publishers to deal with consumers with a minimum of draconian security measures (or, at worst, to keep them from just leaving), we need to do our part to show them that we are not contributing to the darknet... that we are boxing the ears of the nearest Artful Dodger and sending him home to Mama, instead of holding the doors open for them to run in and out with their booty.
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