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Originally Posted by ProfCrash
I don't see who it is going to be in the e-book arena. The EPub readers are fractured and fighting among themselves as well as fighting Amazon. Amazon essentially has one front, EPub Readers. BN has Amazon, Sony, Kobo, and the niche market. Fighting on one front is doable, fighting on two fronts is a bit silly, fighting on three or more fronts is down right insanity.
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I'm not sure the average e-reader/e-book customer sees it that way. Most people buy a Kindle, a Kobo, or what-have-you, and buy books from the e-bookstore their device is tied to. Most know nothing about Calibre, DRM-stripping, etc., and aren't even that interested. Most don't know about Smashwords too, I'd wager. The typical e-book reader is not the same as the typical Mobileread visitor, I suspect.
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Even then, they are not in the best position because Amazon has its entire non book related market to bring in money and help the Kindle out. Amazon is probably not losing that much on e-books, thanks to Agency pricing. I doubt Amazon is losing that much on the devices.
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B&N's losing money, so they may be able to do some partnerships (rumour is that Waterstones is interested, though those same rumours suggest they may house-brand it which would destroy the benefit of the Nook brand name). Sony's also losing money, and not as focused on e-books as the other competitors (even Amazon, with its many business units, is more focused on e-books than Sony, I believe). The reason Chapters/Indigo sold Kobo to Rakuten is that Rakuten has piles of cash on its balance sheet and wants to invest in the e-book market, so Kobo is the one that poses the biggest growth threat to Amazon, IMO. Globally I don't see Amazon losing their #1 position anytime soon, but in key markets where there's a strong retail player for Kobo to partner with we'll likely see stronger competition.