Quote:
Originally Posted by mr ploppy
There's a graph here showing US recorded music sales from 1973 to 2009.
http://static6.businessinsider.com/i...c-industry.jpg
Sales tend to go up and down coinciding with economic recession, as you would probably guess, and while there was actually a very small dip in 1997that coincides with Napster, the total for that year still excedes the previous high peak in the mid-70s. There was then quite a sharp spike in sales for the next few years, before the current recession hit and sales slumped again. |
The graph is only one data point in an complicated economy...but it sure looks like piracy may be having an effect on music sales. Looking at the previous dip, the high point for music sales was in 1978; there was a steep 4-year fall, and sales hit their lowest point in 1982. There was a plateau for about a year and sales begain going up again in 1983. So 4 year drop, 1 year plateau, gradual climb up again.
Contrast that to the more recent decline - sales were at their peak in 1999 and basically fell for the next 10 years. There is what probably looked like it would be a plateau in 2003...but then music sales just continued to fall. This 10 year fall doesn't really look anything like the shorter, less deep 4 year fall of the early 80's.
I should also point out that the recession of 90-91 doesn't seem to have had any effect on music sales.
As I mentioned above, it's hard to really pin a cause/effect relationship on a graph like this. But the graph doesn't really suggest that we are just in a down cycle like 78-82 (although that may have some effect); nor does it support a purely recessionary theory (due to the 90-91 recession being missed, among other things). It's really hard to avoid the conclusion that piracy has likely contributed to at least some of the decline we've seen since 1999, even though there are almost certainly several other factors that will have contributed to the decline, one of was probably the economy.