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It'll never again come to that though. Big business and law enforcement may perhaps score limited and very temporary victories now and again, but there are such a plethora of avenues for sharing files these days, both existing and in the works, that thoughts of a significant and durable culling of downloaders are totally and utterly unrealistic.
As far as "casual" downloaders and pirates go, those are really confined to my generation (40+) and those older. Move one generation down and most people are sufficiently tech-savvy that VPNs, DRM removal and whatever is no obstacle whatsoever. Move down to kids and teenagers and >everyone< (+/-1-2%) is technologically adept enough to not consider such things as any kind of barrier at all. So while many of those may be seen as casual downloaders, they will equally casually brush away whatever obstacles are put in their way.
Or at least that's the picture here; I can't say I know how tech-savvy people elsewhere are.
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