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I would be very surprised is someone surpasses Amazon as the dominant player in the e-book arena. Amazon is able to sell the Kindle in places where the other e-reader companies cannot. Kindle users are used to getting their e-books from Amazon. Let's face it, most people out there know little to nothing about DRM and removing DRM and converting e-books. They buy from the store that makes it easiest for them to get a book and put it on their device.
For Kindle users, that will be Amazon. For BN users (not an issue in Australia, I know) that will be BN. For Kobo users that will be Kobo.
Additionally, Amazon's massive distribution system for all manner of goods places it in a strategically sound spot for negotiating prices. The Publishers were so scared of Amazon that they came up with Agency Pricing at Apples request. If anything, all this did was strengthen Amazon's place in the market because Amazon went from losing money on e-books to making money on e-books.
In order to weaken Amazon's position, you have to find a major book seller that will sell books in both EPub and Mobi. More likely, in non-DRMed EPub and Mobi so that the books can easily be transfered to Kindles, Sonys, Nooks, Kobos, and other devices. The Major Publishers are not going to agree to this any time in the near future.
Why will the books have to lack DRM? Because most people are clueless about removing DRM and they will not buy a book that they cannot put on their device. The only site that sells Kindle specific DRM is Amazon. So Kindle users buy from Amazon. If you could convince BN and Publishers to sell Mobi Books without DRM you might see some segment of e-book buyers move to buy their Kindle books from BN. Pick another store that works for you if you must. But that is not going to happen because BN wants to lock its users into using the Nook so insists on its own special DRM and Publishers are not going to allow BN to sell books without DRM.
Unless someone can develop an e-reader and a bookstore that can rival Amazon and its reach, and so far no one has, then Amazon will remain the dominant player. If anything, that role is growing.
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