Quote:
Originally Posted by Kali Yuga
I'll say it. 
Actually, I foresee more a big reorganization, lots of store closures, a dramatic loss of status, and potential buy-out by another media company. It'll take time, but I also suspect Borders crashed and burned faster than most expected. |
Chapter 7 liquidation for B&N?
Sorry, I don't see it getting that far. Not even as a reach.
Chapter 11 reorganization? That is more likely.
Not probable, today; not with what's been revealed so far. The most likely scenario, today, is B&N finds a way to mortgage Nook and stay in business for another year while they try to shed stores or find other uses for their non-productive floor-space.
Problem is, there is another shoe drop ahead of us: Amazon's 4th quarter.
As of November, Amazon was skating on thin ice themselves; they even warned about "flirting with red ink". Since then, their very positive sales reports have consolidated FIRE and eink reader sales. Depending on how those numbers break down, Amazon could find themselves reporting an eink "shortfall" of their own.
If it comes to that, all bets are off, no? After all, who would want to buy even a piece of a bleeding #2 in a business where even a well-run #1 is hurting? That's all pure speculation, of course, but the scenario where US eink reader sales flatten out in now in play regardless of the news from Amazon.
Again, the question out there is simply: how much risk would a hypothetical Nook white knight be willing to assume? And what price would it demand? Ditching eink? Ditching ADEPT compatibility? (Think about it.)
As I said: there's not enough data yet to worry about an immediate catastrophe, but there are plenty of bad-endings in sight and few good-endings in view. Hence the stock drop.