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Old 01-08-2012, 11:59 AM   #90
fjtorres
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Don't think there is any disputing that B&N reported good news, bad news, and disturbing news on Friday:

Good - Nook sales were, year to year, 70% better. Total Nook business for the year $1.5billion.

Bad - They expected (and needed) even better Nook sales. Nook STR has a sales shortfall. This translates into: lots of Nook STRs clogging the pipeline.

Disturbing - They announced they were looking to "separate" Nook from the rest of B&N. What makes that bland announcemennt disturbing is that it came wrapped in the same package as the other two announcements.

If B&N had said the exact same thing two months ago, right after Indigo announce they had *quietly* sold Kobo off, nobody would have "freaked out"; it would have been seen as a company taking stock of its business in a changing competitive environment and evaluating the worth of it assets and how to best deliver stockholder value.
(Sort-of like when Hulu got an un-solicited buyout offer and then essentially put themselve up for auction before turning down *all* deals because they were all too high. )
The B&N stock price would've likely gotten a nice boost.

Not now.
Making the announcement in the teeth of the other two facts simply says B&N is running out of money. They have a cash crunch coming and inventory issues.
That isn't spin; it is fact. They said so themselves. The numbers speak for themselves.

As the WIRED article points out, they're looking at a swing of (possibly) as much as a hundred million.
They can cover it: nobody is saying B&N is headed for chapter 7.
But they *can't* both cover their looming losses *and* grow Nook internationally at the same time.

B&N simply needs more money and just selling Sterling alone isn't going to cut it.
Closing stores and laying off people won't do it.
The options are to pro-actively monetize Nook or file for Chapter 11 and watch a court do it for them.

The Nook long term may or not be bright as a supernova.
The storefront long term may or not be dismal.

But the issue at hand is the short-term: how to survive 2012.

The stock market saw this and kneejerked the stock by what? 20%?
Think of it as a risk penalty: B&N stock just became a lot riskier to hold.
And that is why they issued those three announcements together; without the first two, they wouldn't *need* to do the third.

The sky isn't falling.
But it sure as heck isn't bright and sunny either. More like overcast with gale force winds coming.

Last edited by fjtorres; 01-08-2012 at 12:02 PM.
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