Quote:
Originally Posted by gracie
So, just out of curiosity, what's likely to drag these <series of expletives deleted> publishers into the 21st century?
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I'm not saying they are right (or wrong) but it's not a tech decision, but a money decision. Of course, we would like an unlimited supply of free ebooks from the library, but the publishers must be convinced its the most profitable approach for them.
Putting books in the library has some positives for them. No doubt there is some revenue gained. Also, library books may prove to be promotional and lead to sales of related books that aren't in the library.
On the other hand, there will clearly be negative effects on revenue also. No doubt many library readers will be new and not cannibalize sales; however, I think you can argue that at least some readers who would have purchased a specific book will now check it out. Furthermore, people can only read one book at a time, and an unlimited supply of free books may reduce purchases.
The problem is that no one knows which effect is larger. Furthermore, all the evidence now is not necessarily indicative of the future. Experiments that are run before easy consumption devices and wide availability of ebooks will not necessarily give the same results when ebook is the primary reading platform. It is easy for those of us who want free ebooks to ask for them to get with the game. It is tougher for those whose incomes rest on the status quo to accept irreversible changes that may destroy their business. Furthermore, it's not like they are making ridiculous profits. Take a look at their profit margins and they aren't huge as a percent.
My guess is that they are doomed because there is no way to save their business model. Writers will go independent and publishing services will be consumed ala carte. Small scale authors will do everything on their own. Mid-list authors will contract for editing, covers, etcetera. And, big time writers will turn to an agent/manager who will arrange for editing, cover art, and promotion. The public will use the rating systems on places like Amazon to replace the screening function provided by publishers today. Finally, there will be the emergence of genre specific critics who will recommend the best books either because they love the genre or because they earn money through affiliate arrangements.
If this scenario is true, there really is little place for the big publisher in the future. Their only hope is to fight a rearguard action so that they can make money on the current model for as long as possible. Don't expect to see them rushing to put themselves out of business.