Quote:
Originally Posted by Kumabjorn
So you believe we will go back to a model similar to the 19th and 18th century when artists were dependent on maeceneas for their livelihood?
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A lot of people paid for books back then. It's true that authors didn't get foreign royalties, but there was domestic revenue.
There will continue to be revenue from the large group of people whose moral values lead them to pay for intellectual property even if they could safely get it for free. And then there are the cautious types who won't do something they fear is illegal, even if based on misunderstanding.
As for patrons of the arts, think higher education. A large portion of good non-fiction -- and a lot of serious fiction -- is already written by faculty. Maybe they are doing it to get a tenure-track position. Or maybe they are doing it to get tenure. Or maybe they think it's part of their job. Or maybe they like doing it, and have a job that gives them the time needed to write.
When you earn less for each book, there's pressure to write more.* Also, disintermediation of publishing houses means less careful editing. But I don't think you will see a shortage of new books.
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* It's often said that Sir Walter Scott never again wrote a book as good as
Ivanhoe because financial problems forced him to frequently churn out new novels. If his US publishers had paid him royalties, he might have produced another real classic, but fewer total titles.