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However, I don't see any money at all in this. With more than 50,000 books already enrolled, that's an average payout of $10 per month per book, and most of the average will be skewed to the popular bestsellers anyway.
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The more books that are available, the less useful the program is to each book, and I'm sure you're right that it's the very popular books that will get the most borrows. I'd also expect that books from traditional publishers with higher list prices would likely get borrowed more. Some books may not get borrowed at all.
But the real question is, how many borrows will there be? With a $500,000 pool to divvy up, if one of your books was the only book borrowed that month, you'd pocket a half million bucks! On the other hand, if there are 500,000 borrows, each book gets only a dollar per borrow. Five million borrows means each book gets a dime per borrow.
Since we don't know how many Amazon Prime members there are, there's really no way to even guess what the rate will be. We just have to wait and see.
I have just one book, so I'm not putting it up for free for any amount of time. That part of the Select deal doesn't pertain to me.
If I received any noticeable sales from anyone other than Amazon, I wouldn't go for it. But apparently I have almost no non-Amazon readers to lose.