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It wouldn't take much for Amazon to simply block old versions of the Kindle Apps (I'm surprised they don't do this already).
There's going to be a time when they have to do that - for compatibility with new formats or DRM.
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Not necessarily. Especially if they're moving to a system (as it seems they are) that transparently delivers the proper format to the proper device/app. The DRM scheme has already changed since the K1 came out, but you can still get brand new books delivered to those K1's with the old DRM that's based on a device PID. I don't see much difference between that and K4PC version 1.0-beta still chugging along. They haven't had any trouble maintaining and preparing for backward-compatibility yet, so I see no need for them to suddenly start. The new features alone are often enough reason to get people to upgrade all on their own... so there's really no reason to force those upgrades with a heavy-handed approach.