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i've been following this thread with interest (and apprehension, i admit). i don't have an estimate ; i really have no idea, and the poll isn't about hopes / fears.
some valid points seem to have been made in favor of their perennity, but also against it. i think the points about libraries being a reposity for cultural heritage and a ressource for research are convincing. on a less elitist scale, the neighborhood library may be more directly threatened but they also seem to be trying to evolve (some anyway).
my neighborhood library (which is litterally one street from my house) lends paper books, audio books (on cd), periodicals, and comic books (french format) for free, and for a small yearly subscription fee you can also borrow music cds and / or dvds. they also have a reference section, with tables and chairs for doing research or homework, and provide access to a computer with internet access, as well as photocopiers. there are areas on each floor with comfortable chairs where you can sit and read all day if you want. on the children's floor they organise readings and such. on the audio floor (the "discothèque", i love that it's called that) they play music. they regularly host artist expositions and have a bulletin board and a flyer stand with information about local events. every week or so they choose a theme and showcase books about that theme. on the other hand, saturday i asked whether they were planning to begin lending ebooks, and the librarian i talked to told me that there were no plans for that for the moment (although they already have e-libraries in Marseille and in Boulogne-Billancourt, and probably other cities). i imagine though that that will change.
i've never seen it completely empty ; it's pretty quiet during the month of august, when half the city is on holiday, but most of the year it's fairly lively. saturdays it's busy enough to brush chaos. the majority of borrowers (based on my observations while standing in line to borrow / return) are there for books.
i think the point about them becoming "community centers" is quite realistic and that for some at least it's already more or less the case, but i don't really see the books being completely marginalized, even when liseuses become more common. but what do i know...
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